How can I estimate the time required to bring a piece of meat to a certain temperature?

I would like to cook a couple steaks using the "reverse sear" technique (e.g. this Youtube video).
The general instructions are:
- Preheat the oven to 275F.
- Put steaks in oven and bake until they reach an internal temperature of 125F (for rare).
- Remove the meat from the oven and let it rest for approximately 15 minutes.
- Sear for about one minute per side and serve.
In the video, they use a probe thermometer but without one of these available, how can I estimate the time required for step 2 based on the weight and/or thickness of the meat? Obviously each cut of steak has a different amount of fat, etc but are there any general guidelines? It would be nice to keep the number of thermometer-meat-stabbings to a minimum.
Best Answer
I think this will be impossible to do accurately, in an oven, without a thermometer. I know you want to estimate, but a few degrees will be the difference between rare and medium rare, for example. Variables include: thickness of steak, internal temperature of steak when you begin, accuracy of your oven temperature, and time. In an oven, even though you set the temp for 275...not only might that be inaccurate (thus the use of oven thermometers), it also fluctuates fairly widely throughout the cook time.
If you were cooking in a water bath (sous vide) you could solve this problem with excellent accuracy. See http://www.douglasbaldwin.com/sous-vide.html#Beef
Caution: Do not apply Baldwin's charts to oven cooking.
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How do you calculate cooking time at a different temperature?
How to adjust cooking times for different temperatures.What determines the length of time meat must cook?
Thickness of the meat. The thickness of the meat determines how long it takes to cook, not the weight, although the weight is often related to the thickness. That's because meat is done when it reaches the desired temp in the geographic center. It's that simple.How long does it take to bring a roast to room temperature?
Room Temperature: To cook evenly, the roast must not be cold - let it stand at room temperature, loosely covered, for about 2 to 4 hours. This time can vary depending on how big or small your roast is.How long does it take for meat to get ready?
Most cuts of beef roast at 325 degrees Fahrenheit for about 20 minutes a pound. Tri-tip and tenderloin, cuts that cook at 425 F, are exceptions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture recommends cooking roasts to an internal temperature of 145 F with a three-minute resting time after the meat is finished.5 Tips to Help you Estimate how Much Time a Project Will Take
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